Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Cozens wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.5% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Cozens 79.5%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 79.1%
Neutral zone
Cozens 55.6%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Cozens
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Cozens
Kastelic
Last 10: Cozens 3-7 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
5
3
Cozens
Kastelic
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
5
Cozens
Kastelic
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
1
Cozens
Kastelic
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (4,103)
57.0% (1,635)
-8.0%
Power Play
50.3% (717)
80.0% (25)
-29.7%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (439)
53.8% (279)
-12.8%
On power play, Kastelic has a +29.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Cozens is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,457).
Cozens shoots right. Kastelic is 58.5% vs right-shot opponents (494).
Home / Away
Cozens
Kastelic
Home
48.3% (2,685)
58.7% (904)
Away
48.7% (2,574)
55.2% (1,035)
By Period
Cozens
Kastelic
P1
49.1%
58.6%
P2
47.8%
56.5%
P3
48.9%
55.6%
OT
34.3%
53.8%
Final 5 min
46.1%
59.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
48.5%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 16:03 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 11:59 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 19:37 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 19:16 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 10:41 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 3 | 04:42 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 17:55 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |