Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 53.2% vs McCarron 52.1% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 89.3%
Defensive zone
McCarron 80.7%
Neutral zone
Cozens 50.0%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Cozens
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Cozens
McCarron
Last 8: Cozens 4-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
McCarron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
2
Cozens
McCarron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
3
2
Cozens
McCarron
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (634)
52.8% (697)
+0.4%
Power Play
57.7% (97)
18.2% (11)
+39.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
52.6% (211)
-19.3%
On power play, Cozens has a +39.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Cozens is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Cozens shoots right. McCarron is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Cozens
McCarron
Home
54.8% (383)
52.8% (477)
Away
52.3% (354)
51.8% (442)
By Period
Cozens
McCarron
P1
56.0%
56.2%
P2
51.2%
52.4%
P3
53.9%
48.7%
OT
40.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.7%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
53.6%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 12:51 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:07 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 08:19 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:13 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:58 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |