Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 49.9%). Look for Cozens on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 50.6% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 63.2%
Defensive zone
Cozens 76.7%
Neutral zone
Cozens 58.0%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 65.0%
65.0%
35.0%
Cozens
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Cozens
Stamkos
Last 5: Cozens 4-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Cozens
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
3
0
Cozens
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (891)
49.3% (670)
+2.1%
Power Play
50.5% (184)
53.7% (121)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (85)
33.3% (3)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, Cozens has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Cozens is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Cozens shoots right. Stamkos is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
Cozens
Stamkos
Home
49.5% (638)
54.0% (400)
Away
51.9% (522)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Cozens
Stamkos
P1
51.9%
48.6%
P2
46.4%
54.5%
P3
54.2%
45.4%
OT
16.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
50.6%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:42 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 19:42 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:51 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3 | 07:49 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:39 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |