Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.5% vs Hertl 54.3% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 16-14 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Cozens 59.4%
Defensive zone
Cozens 61.0%
Neutral zone
Cozens 57.8%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Cozens
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
16
(30 meetings)
14
16
Cozens
Hertl
Last 10: Cozens 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
10
Cozens
Hertl
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
7
3
Cozens
Hertl
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Cozens
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (4,103)
53.9% (8,303)
-4.9%
Power Play
50.3% (717)
59.2% (1,995)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (439)
46.3% (806)
-5.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cozens is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,802).
Cozens shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Cozens
Hertl
Home
48.3% (2,685)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
48.7% (2,574)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Cozens
Hertl
P1
49.1%
53.6%
P2
47.8%
54.2%
P3
48.9%
55.3%
OT
34.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
46.1%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
48.5%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:52 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 14:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 10:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:10 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 06:39 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 09:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 03:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:06 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:26 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |