Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Holloway on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Holloway wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Holloway 49.4% vs Staal 54.6% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Holloway 67.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 64.0%
Neutral zone
Holloway 56.6%
Result
Dylan Holloway favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Holloway
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Holloway
Staal
Last 5: Holloway 2-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Holloway
2
1
Holloway
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
2
Holloway
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Holloway
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (49)
56.2% (989)
-13.3%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
66.0% (159)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
42.7% (253)
+57.3%
On penalty kill, Holloway has a +57.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Holloway is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (40).
Holloway shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
Holloway
Staal
Home
54.5% (33)
55.4% (699)
Away
41.4% (29)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Holloway
Staal
P1
43.8%
55.7%
P2
26.3%
54.7%
P3
66.7%
53.4%
Final 5 min
45.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Holloway
46.0%▲
44.0%
48.4%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 04:51 | Offensive | Dylan Holloway |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Dylan Holloway |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 15:02 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |