Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Holloway on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Holloway wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Holloway 45.9% vs Staal 55.3% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Holloway 72.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 73.9%
Neutral zone
Holloway 59.0%
Result
Dylan Holloway favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Holloway
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Holloway
Staal
Last 5: Holloway 2-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Holloway
2
1
Holloway
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
2
Holloway
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Holloway
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (265)
55.9% (14,654)
-11.4%
Power Play
42.2% (45)
62.7% (1,762)
-20.5%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (4)
47.9% (2,907)
+27.1%
On penalty kill, Holloway has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Holloway is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Holloway shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Home / Away
Holloway
Staal
Home
49.7% (151)
56.4% (9,699)
Away
39.9% (163)
54.3% (9,689)
By Period
Holloway
Staal
P1
40.9%
55.2%
P2
37.1%
55.9%
P3
54.5%
54.8%
Final 5 min
45.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Holloway
46.0%▲
44.0%
44.6%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 04:51 | Offensive | Dylan Holloway |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Dylan Holloway |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 15:02 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |