Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.0% vs Larkin 52.2% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 80.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 85.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 55.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Tkachuk
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tkachuk
Larkin
Last 6: Tkachuk 3-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Tkachuk
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (153)
51.1% (915)
+3.8%
Power Play
59.4% (106)
59.4% (261)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
48.2% (168)
+51.8%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +51.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (183).
Tkachuk shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Larkin
Home
50.8% (128)
51.7% (686)
Away
62.9% (132)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Tkachuk
Larkin
P1
56.6%
52.5%
P2
58.9%
52.7%
P3
56.2%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:18 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 14:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 13:16 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 18:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 16:47 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 00:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |