Scouting Report
Colton Sissons holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sissons on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sissons wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sissons 55.8% vs Larkin 52.2% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.0%
Defensive zone
Sissons 61.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 63.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Sissons
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Sissons
Larkin
Last 6: Sissons 2-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Sissons
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sissons
2
1
Sissons
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Sissons
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sissons
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
57.6% (436)
51.1% (915)
+6.5%
Power Play
65.0% (20)
59.4% (261)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (123)
48.2% (168)
+4.6%
On even strength, Sissons has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Sissons is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Sissons shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Home / Away
Sissons
Larkin
Home
53.3% (274)
51.7% (686)
Away
60.0% (305)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Sissons
Larkin
P1
55.7%
52.5%
P2
58.3%
52.7%
P3
56.4%
51.4%
OT
0.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sissons
64.0%▲
60.0%
56.8%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 17:37 | Defensive | Colton Sissons |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:50 | Defensive | Colton Sissons |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |