Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Lindholm 55.3% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Lindholm 66.0%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 52.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.7%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Larkin
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
9
(20 meetings)
11
9
Larkin
Lindholm
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Lindholm
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
4
5
Larkin
Lindholm
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
1
Larkin
Lindholm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
54.8% (766)
-3.7%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
62.3% (175)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
52.2% (92)
-4.0%
On penalty kill, Lindholm has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Lindholm is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Larkin
Lindholm
Home
51.7% (686)
56.6% (578)
Away
53.0% (658)
54.9% (455)
By Period
Larkin
Lindholm
P1
52.5%
55.2%
P2
52.7%
56.3%
P3
51.4%
56.3%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 10:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:48 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 12:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:11 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:52 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:24 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |