Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 46 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Lindholm 53.9% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 64-50 in 114 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 60.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 60.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 62.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Larkin
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
64
(114 meetings)
50
64
Larkin
Lindholm
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
23
23
Larkin
Lindholm
46 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
17
29
Larkin
Lindholm
46 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
10
12
Larkin
Lindholm
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
53.8% (8,549)
-2.2%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
59.4% (1,745)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
48.3% (1,619)
+1.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Lindholm is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,165).
Home / Away
Larkin
Lindholm
Home
53.9% (6,277)
54.2% (5,980)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
53.6% (5,933)
By Period
Larkin
Lindholm
P1
52.7%
54.2%
P2
53.1%
54.5%
P3
52.0%
53.0%
OT
58.4%
53.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 10:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:48 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 12:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:11 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:52 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:24 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |