Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Guentzel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Guentzel 48.1% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 54.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 83.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 65.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 72.8%
72.8%
27.2%
Larkin
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Larkin
Guentzel
Last 7: Larkin 5-2 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
2
Larkin
Guentzel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
Guentzel
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
49.1% (230)
+2.0%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
44.9% (118)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
46.2% (26)
+2.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Guentzel is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Larkin
Guentzel
Home
51.7% (686)
50.2% (205)
Away
53.0% (658)
44.4% (169)
By Period
Larkin
Guentzel
P1
52.5%
47.6%
P2
52.7%
49.0%
P3
51.4%
46.2%
OT
61.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
55.7%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 17:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:21 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 1 | 05:27 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |