Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Guentzel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Guentzel 46.7% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 64.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 96.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 82.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 85.8%
85.8%
14.2%
Larkin
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Larkin
Guentzel
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
5
Larkin
Guentzel
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
10
0
Larkin
Guentzel
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Guentzel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
46.4% (715)
+5.2%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
46.6% (298)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
43.2% (44)
+7.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Guentzel is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (656).
Home / Away
Larkin
Guentzel
Home
53.9% (6,277)
48.9% (583)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
43.2% (474)
By Period
Larkin
Guentzel
P1
52.7%
48.0%
P2
53.1%
45.5%
P3
52.0%
46.0%
OT
58.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 17:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:21 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 1 | 05:27 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 28, 2022 | OT | 02:24 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 13, 2018 | 2 | 05:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 13, 2018 | 2 | 03:28 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 13, 2018 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |