Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Norris 49.9% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 51.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 57.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 55.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Larkin
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Larkin
Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Norris
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
0
1
Larkin
Norris
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
50.5% (388)
+0.6%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
47.6% (84)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
42.9% (7)
+5.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Norris is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Larkin
Norris
Home
51.7% (686)
48.1% (233)
Away
53.0% (658)
51.6% (246)
By Period
Larkin
Norris
P1
52.5%
53.1%
P2
52.7%
49.2%
P3
51.4%
48.4%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | 1 | 08:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |