Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.2%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 18 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Norris 52.1% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Norris leads 29-27 in 56 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 55.6%
Defensive zone
Norris 50.8%
Neutral zone
Norris 51.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Larkin
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
29
(56 meetings)
27
29
Larkin
Norris
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
13
5
Larkin
Norris
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
4
11
Larkin
Norris
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
10
13
Larkin
Norris
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
52.5% (3,089)
-0.9%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
53.4% (412)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
45.4% (240)
+4.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Norris is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,419).
Home / Away
Larkin
Norris
Home
53.9% (6,277)
53.1% (1,896)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
51.2% (1,845)
By Period
Larkin
Norris
P1
52.7%
55.5%
P2
53.1%
51.5%
P3
52.0%
50.1%
OT
58.4%
39.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | 1 | 08:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 10:12 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 05:39 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 10:54 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 06:55 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 15:40 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 12:36 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 07:07 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 07:50 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 07:19 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 04:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:32 | Defensive | Josh Norris |