Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Dowling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Dowling 48.9% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 77.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 66.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 67.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Larkin
Dowling
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Larkin
Dowling
Last 7: Larkin 5-2 Dowling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
1
3
Larkin
Dowling
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Dowling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Dowling
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Dowling
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
49.4% (652)
+2.2%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
40.6% (32)
+18.0%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
33.3% (9)
+16.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowling shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Dowling is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (455).
Home / Away
Larkin
Dowling
Home
53.9% (6,277)
48.2% (301)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
49.2% (392)
By Period
Larkin
Dowling
P1
52.7%
47.6%
P2
53.1%
50.4%
P3
52.0%
48.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 1 | 19:28 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 1 | 05:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 04:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2 | 19:20 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |