Dylan Larkin vs Justin Sourdif

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Dylan Larkin holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Larkin 52.2% vs Sourdif 45.6% (+7.5%)
H2H factor Sourdif leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone Sourdif 50.1%
Defensive zone Sourdif 56.4%
Neutral zone Larkin 53.3%
Result Justin Sourdif favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Larkin Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
10 - 10 (20 meetings)
10
10
Larkin Sourdif
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Sourdif

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
2
Larkin Sourdif
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
5
Larkin Sourdif
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
3
Larkin Sourdif
7 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Larkin
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
44.3% (585)
+6.8%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
50.0% (24)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
61.5% (13)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +13.3% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Larkin
Sourdif
Home
51.7% (686)
43.6% (321)
Away
53.0% (658)
46.2% (301)
By Period
Larkin
Sourdif
P1
52.5%
41.9%
P2
52.7%
44.3%
P3
51.4%
47.9%
OT
61.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
42.9%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%
50.5%
52.4%
Sourdif
36.0%
41.0%
44.9%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 29, 2026 3 03:24 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 29, 2026 3 03:16 Defensive Justin Sourdif
Jan 29, 2026 3 00:49 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 29, 2026 3 00:27 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 29, 2026 2 00:56 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 29, 2026 1 13:45 Neutral Justin Sourdif
Jan 29, 2026 1 04:06 Offensive Justin Sourdif
Dec 21, 2025 3 17:14 Defensive Justin Sourdif
Dec 21, 2025 3 11:28 Offensive Justin Sourdif
Dec 21, 2025 2 16:18 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Dec 21, 2025 1 09:24 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Dec 20, 2025 3 08:30 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Dec 20, 2025 3 06:01 Defensive Justin Sourdif
Dec 20, 2025 3 00:00 Neutral Justin Sourdif
Dec 20, 2025 2 10:05 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Dec 20, 2025 2 05:55 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Dec 20, 2025 2 02:37 Defensive Justin Sourdif
Dec 20, 2025 2 02:31 Defensive Justin Sourdif
Dec 20, 2025 2 00:00 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Dec 20, 2025 1 00:00 Neutral Justin Sourdif