Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Sourdif 45.6% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Sourdif leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 61.6%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 57.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Larkin
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
Larkin
Sourdif
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
2
Larkin
Sourdif
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
5
Larkin
Sourdif
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
3
Larkin
Sourdif
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
44.3% (585)
+7.3%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
50.0% (24)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
61.5% (13)
-11.3%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Larkin
Sourdif
Home
53.9% (6,277)
43.6% (321)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
46.2% (301)
By Period
Larkin
Sourdif
P1
52.7%
41.9%
P2
53.1%
44.3%
P3
52.0%
47.9%
OT
58.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:16 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:49 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 13:45 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:14 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 11:28 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 16:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 09:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 08:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:01 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:05 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:37 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:31 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |