Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Eller 55.0% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 63.2%
Defensive zone
Eller 54.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Larkin
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Larkin
Eller
Last 6: Larkin 3-3 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
3
Larkin
Eller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
56.0% (459)
-4.9%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
77.8% (9)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
51.9% (54)
-3.7%
On power play, Eller has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Eller is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Larkin
Eller
Home
51.7% (686)
52.6% (215)
Away
53.0% (658)
58.3% (307)
By Period
Larkin
Eller
P1
52.5%
54.1%
P2
52.7%
57.6%
P3
51.4%
56.2%
Final 5 min
55.7%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:59 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 06:36 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 16:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 10:44 | Defensive | Lars Eller |