Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 24 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Eller 50.5% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 37-25 in 62 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 80.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 51.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 59.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
Larkin
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
37
-
25
(62 meetings)
37
25
Larkin
Eller
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
20
4
Larkin
Eller
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
5
17
Larkin
Eller
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
12
4
Larkin
Eller
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
51.1% (10,321)
+0.5%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
52.8% (621)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
46.6% (1,759)
+3.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,142).
Home / Away
Larkin
Eller
Home
53.9% (6,277)
51.4% (6,122)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
49.7% (6,607)
By Period
Larkin
Eller
P1
52.7%
51.2%
P2
53.1%
50.1%
P3
52.0%
50.2%
OT
58.4%
56.7%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:59 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 06:36 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 16:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 10:44 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 02:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 10:17 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 01:42 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 15:02 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:47 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 04:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 15:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 15:52 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 12:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |