Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Carlsson 44.6% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 15-12 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 64.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 74.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 69.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Larkin
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
12
(27 meetings)
15
12
Larkin
Carlsson
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Larkin
Carlsson
12 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Carlsson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
3
Larkin
Carlsson
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
45.0% (695)
+6.1%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
46.4% (84)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
32.9% (85)
+15.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carlsson
Home
51.7% (686)
42.5% (435)
Away
53.0% (658)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Larkin
Carlsson
P1
52.5%
45.3%
P2
52.7%
38.7%
P3
51.4%
48.5%
OT
61.3%
41.7%
Final 5 min
55.7%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 15:17 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 03:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 15:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |