Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Carlsson 41.1% (+12.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 22-15 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 88.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 87.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 86.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 87.5%
87.5%
12.5%
Larkin
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
15
(37 meetings)
22
15
Larkin
Carlsson
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
9
7
Larkin
Carlsson
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
4
Larkin
Carlsson
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
8
4
Larkin
Carlsson
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
40.9% (1,878)
+10.7%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
42.9% (156)
+15.7%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
34.7% (121)
+15.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,512).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carlsson
Home
53.9% (6,277)
42.2% (1,051)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
39.2% (1,104)
By Period
Larkin
Carlsson
P1
52.7%
43.3%
P2
53.1%
36.2%
P3
52.0%
43.3%
OT
58.4%
40.7%
Final 5 min
53.2%
39.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 15:17 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 03:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 15:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |