Scouting Report
Mark Jankowski holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Jankowski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Jankowski 53.1% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jankowski 52.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Larkin
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Larkin
Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Jankowski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jankowski
0
2
Larkin
Jankowski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
53.7% (555)
-2.6%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
50.0% (14)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
54.3% (46)
-6.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Jankowski is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (379).
Home / Away
Larkin
Jankowski
Home
51.7% (686)
53.2% (331)
Away
53.0% (658)
54.2% (284)
By Period
Larkin
Jankowski
P1
52.5%
52.7%
P2
52.7%
55.8%
P3
51.4%
52.5%
Final 5 min
55.7%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Jankowski
52.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:52 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |