Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Jankowski on defensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 16 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Jankowski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Jankowski 50.4% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Jankowski leads 21-14 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Jankowski 55.4%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 69.6%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 62.6%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Larkin
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
21
(35 meetings)
14
21
Larkin
Jankowski
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Larkin
Jankowski
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
5
11
Larkin
Jankowski
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jankowski
4
5
Larkin
Jankowski
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
51.5% (3,490)
+0.1%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
53.7% (95)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
42.7% (534)
+7.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Jankowski is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,549).
Home / Away
Larkin
Jankowski
Home
53.9% (6,277)
51.8% (1,961)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
49.1% (2,158)
By Period
Larkin
Jankowski
P1
52.7%
49.8%
P2
53.1%
51.1%
P3
52.0%
50.3%
OT
58.4%
20.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Jankowski
52.0%▲
50.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:52 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 16:50 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 06:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:10 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 07:39 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 18:06 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 17:56 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 09:47 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:26 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 11:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 17:52 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 15:25 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 13:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 07:35 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 05:37 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |