Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 73.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 87.4%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 63.9%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Larkin
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
7
(17 meetings)
10
7
Larkin
Kastelic
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
0
Larkin
Kastelic
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
4
Larkin
Kastelic
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
3
Larkin
Kastelic
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
57.0% (1,635)
-5.4%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
80.0% (25)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
53.8% (279)
-3.6%
On power play, Kastelic has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,445).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kastelic
Home
53.9% (6,277)
58.7% (904)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
55.2% (1,035)
By Period
Larkin
Kastelic
P1
52.7%
58.6%
P2
53.1%
56.5%
P3
52.0%
55.6%
OT
58.4%
53.8%
Final 5 min
53.2%
59.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 11:59 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:24 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 29, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 14:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 09:32 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 01:19 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 01:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 07:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 06:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 12:55 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 07:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 2 | 15:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |