Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Barzal 41.9% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 51.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Larkin
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Larkin
Barzal
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
2
Larkin
Barzal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Larkin
Barzal
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
40.9% (469)
+10.2%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
34.2% (38)
+25.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
28.6% (7)
+19.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +25.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Larkin
Barzal
Home
51.7% (686)
39.2% (250)
Away
53.0% (658)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Larkin
Barzal
P1
52.5%
46.3%
P2
52.7%
36.7%
P3
51.4%
38.5%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:25 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |