Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Barzal 42.2% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 29-24 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 70.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 76.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 74.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Larkin
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
24
(53 meetings)
29
24
Larkin
Barzal
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
7
8
Larkin
Barzal
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
10
7
Larkin
Barzal
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
12
9
Larkin
Barzal
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
41.9% (3,571)
+9.7%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
43.4% (205)
+15.2%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
42.3% (26)
+7.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Barzal is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,704).
Home / Away
Larkin
Barzal
Home
53.9% (6,277)
43.2% (1,901)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
Larkin
Barzal
P1
52.7%
40.6%
P2
53.1%
44.6%
P3
52.0%
41.1%
OT
58.4%
27.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:25 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 06:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:12 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 11:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 14:21 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:28 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |