Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Bourque 46.2% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 61.9%
Defensive zone
Bourque 66.0%
Neutral zone
Bourque 50.8%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Larkin
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Larkin
Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Bourque
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
2
Larkin
Bourque
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Bourque
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
46.6% (513)
+5.0%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
26.1% (23)
+32.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
42.9% (28)
+7.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +32.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Bourque is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (425).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bourque
Home
53.9% (6,277)
47.1% (263)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
44.2% (301)
By Period
Larkin
Bourque
P1
52.7%
42.7%
P2
53.1%
42.8%
P3
52.0%
50.2%
OT
58.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
45.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 19:50 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |