Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.4% vs 52.3%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs McCarron 52.1% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 80.5%
Defensive zone
McCarron 72.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 55.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Larkin
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Larkin
McCarron
Last 8: Larkin 4-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
McCarron
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
2
Larkin
McCarron
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
McCarron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
52.8% (697)
-1.7%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
18.2% (11)
+41.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
52.6% (211)
-4.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +41.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Home / Away
Larkin
McCarron
Home
51.7% (686)
52.8% (477)
Away
53.0% (658)
51.8% (442)
By Period
Larkin
McCarron
P1
52.5%
56.2%
P2
52.7%
52.4%
P3
51.4%
48.7%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 13:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |