Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Backlund 49.8% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 77.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 66.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 61.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Larkin
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Larkin
Backlund
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Larkin
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
3
Larkin
Backlund
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
50.5% (944)
+0.6%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
51.5% (66)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
47.1% (297)
+1.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Larkin
Backlund
Home
51.7% (686)
48.1% (636)
Away
53.0% (658)
51.4% (671)
By Period
Larkin
Backlund
P1
52.5%
45.4%
P2
52.7%
54.1%
P3
51.4%
49.2%
OT
61.3%
55.6%
Final 5 min
55.7%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3 | 09:07 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3 | 06:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3 | 03:39 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 11:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 18:15 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 18:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 15:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 04:33 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 01:02 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |