Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Granlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Granlund 49.6% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 68.6%
Defensive zone
Granlund 52.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 55.6%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Larkin
Granlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Larkin
Granlund
Last 5: Larkin 3-2 Granlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Granlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Granlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Granlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
49.5% (588)
+3.1%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
60.5% (43)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
45.2% (93)
+10.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Granlund shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Granlund is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Home / Away
Larkin
Granlund
Home
54.7% (783)
54.8% (305)
Away
54.3% (816)
45.8% (419)
By Period
Larkin
Granlund
P1
55.9%
43.8%
P2
56.1%
51.2%
P3
51.1%
53.9%
OT
66.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
54.5%
Granlund
62.0%▲
54.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 16:31 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 00:58 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 02:48 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 00:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |