Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Dowd 48.6% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 90.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 59.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 74.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Larkin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Larkin
Dowd
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
Dowd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Larkin
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
51.0% (671)
+0.1%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
0.0% (2)
+59.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
41.5% (224)
+6.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +59.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Larkin
Dowd
Home
51.7% (686)
48.2% (471)
Away
53.0% (658)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Larkin
Dowd
P1
52.5%
48.3%
P2
52.7%
46.8%
P3
51.4%
51.0%
OT
61.3%
30.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:44 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 02:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | OT | 00:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | OT | 00:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |