Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 28 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 36-26 in 62 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 87.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 62.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 57.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
Larkin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
26
(62 meetings)
36
26
Larkin
Dowd
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
25
3
Larkin
Dowd
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
16
Larkin
Dowd
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
8
7
Larkin
Dowd
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
52.3% (6,036)
-0.7%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
56.1% (164)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
44.1% (1,638)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Larkin
Dowd
Home
53.9% (6,277)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Larkin
Dowd
P1
52.7%
51.5%
P2
53.1%
50.4%
P3
52.0%
50.3%
OT
58.4%
45.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:44 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 02:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | OT | 00:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | OT | 00:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |