Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Paul 53.6% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 53.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Larkin
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Larkin
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Larkin
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
53.7% (354)
-2.6%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
59.0% (61)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
52.9% (34)
-4.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Larkin
Paul
Home
51.7% (686)
55.1% (216)
Away
53.0% (658)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Larkin
Paul
P1
52.5%
54.9%
P2
52.7%
54.5%
P3
51.4%
54.3%
OT
61.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
55.7%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:40 | Offensive | Nick Paul |