Dylan Larkin vs Nick Paul

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.3%). Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Larkin 52.7% vs Paul 52.2% (+0.4%)
H2H factor Paul leads 25-21 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone Larkin 62.2%
Defensive zone Paul 58.9%
Neutral zone Paul 51.1%
Result Dylan Larkin favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Larkin Paul
Head-to-Head Record
21 - 25 (46 meetings)
21
25
Larkin Paul
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Paul

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Even
9
9
Larkin Paul
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
9
8
Larkin Paul
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
3
8
Larkin Paul
11 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Larkin
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
52.6% (3,823)
-1.0%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
56.2% (484)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
46.9% (576)
+3.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.3% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Paul shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Larkin
Paul
Home
53.9% (6,277)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Larkin
Paul
P1
52.7%
53.8%
P2
53.1%
51.0%
P3
52.0%
52.2%
OT
58.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
51.3%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%
50.5%
52.7%
Paul
54.0%
56.5%
52.3%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Nov 28, 2025 1 19:40 Offensive Nick Paul
Feb 8, 2025 3 08:41 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Feb 8, 2025 3 01:22 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Feb 8, 2025 2 04:43 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 25, 2025 3 00:00 Neutral Nick Paul
Jan 25, 2025 2 14:44 Defensive Nick Paul
Jan 18, 2025 3 13:45 Defensive Nick Paul
Jan 18, 2025 2 05:03 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Apr 1, 2024 3 18:50 Offensive Nick Paul
Apr 1, 2024 3 04:11 Offensive Nick Paul
Jan 21, 2024 3 19:48 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 21, 2024 3 13:58 Neutral Nick Paul
Jan 21, 2024 3 07:46 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Jan 21, 2024 3 04:58 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 21, 2024 2 07:39 Offensive Nick Paul
Jan 21, 2024 2 04:20 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 14, 2023 3 13:35 Offensive Nick Paul
Oct 14, 2023 2 10:53 Neutral Nick Paul
Oct 14, 2023 1 16:54 Defensive Nick Paul
Oct 14, 2023 1 08:03 Neutral Nick Paul