Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Sturm 53.6% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 66.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 75.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 51.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
Larkin
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Larkin
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
54.6% (271)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
54.4% (90)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Larkin
Sturm
Home
51.7% (686)
53.0% (168)
Away
53.0% (658)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Larkin
Sturm
P1
52.5%
58.2%
P2
52.7%
53.2%
P3
51.4%
52.3%
OT
61.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 06:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |