Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Sturm 56.1% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 84.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 65.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 64.0%
36.0%
64.0%
Larkin
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
6
(18 meetings)
12
6
Larkin
Sturm
Last 10: Larkin 9-1 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
0
Larkin
Sturm
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Sturm
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Sturm
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
57.1% (2,719)
-5.5%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
61.3% (62)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
51.0% (498)
-0.8%
On even strength, Sturm has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Larkin
Sturm
Home
53.9% (6,277)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Larkin
Sturm
P1
52.7%
56.5%
P2
53.1%
54.9%
P3
52.0%
57.4%
OT
58.4%
60.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 06:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 07:43 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 04:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 04:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 19:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 11:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 16:25 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 06:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 1 | 16:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |