Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Hartman 45.6% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 60.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 67.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 67.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Larkin
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Larkin
Hartman
Last 9: Larkin 5-4 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
2
Larkin
Hartman
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
2
Larkin
Hartman
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
45.1% (874)
+6.0%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
47.4% (95)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
37.5% (16)
+10.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Hartman is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hartman
Home
51.7% (686)
45.0% (515)
Away
53.0% (658)
45.3% (470)
By Period
Larkin
Hartman
P1
52.5%
47.3%
P2
52.7%
40.1%
P3
51.4%
48.3%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:52 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 09:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 19:07 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |