Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Hartman 45.4% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Hartman leads 19-14 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 76.9%
Defensive zone
Hartman 74.5%
Neutral zone
Hartman 72.9%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 75.2%
24.8%
75.2%
Larkin
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
19
(33 meetings)
14
19
Larkin
Hartman
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
6
7
Larkin
Hartman
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
6
8
Larkin
Hartman
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
2
4
Larkin
Hartman
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
45.2% (4,279)
+6.4%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
47.3% (446)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
42.4% (262)
+7.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Hartman is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,596).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hartman
Home
53.9% (6,277)
46.7% (2,589)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
43.7% (2,398)
By Period
Larkin
Hartman
P1
52.7%
46.1%
P2
53.1%
42.9%
P3
52.0%
46.7%
OT
58.4%
53.8%
Final 5 min
53.2%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:52 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 09:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 19:07 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 12:42 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 10, 2022 | OT | 02:00 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 11:06 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 10:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 03:04 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 12:43 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |