Dylan Larkin vs Ryan O'Reilly

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Larkin 52.2% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-3.0%)
H2H factor O'Reilly leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone Larkin 61.6%
Defensive zone Larkin 63.9%
Neutral zone Larkin 64.6%
Result Dylan Larkin favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Larkin O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9 - 13 (22 meetings)
9
13
Larkin O'Reilly
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 O'Reilly

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
5
Larkin O'Reilly
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Larkin O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Larkin O'Reilly
6 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Larkin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
55.7% (856)
-4.6%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
57.5% (233)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
50.0% (144)
-1.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +4.6% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Larkin
O'Reilly
Home
51.7% (686)
55.5% (616)
Away
53.0% (658)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Larkin
O'Reilly
P1
52.5%
58.1%
P2
52.7%
54.9%
P3
51.4%
53.9%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
56.3%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%
50.5%
52.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%
55.0%
55.4%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Mar 2, 2026 3 19:01 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Mar 2, 2026 3 18:20 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Mar 2, 2026 3 18:10 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Mar 2, 2026 3 05:24 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Mar 2, 2026 3 05:03 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Mar 2, 2026 3 00:00 Neutral Ryan O'Reilly
Mar 2, 2026 2 19:57 Defensive Ryan O'Reilly
Mar 2, 2026 2 14:58 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Nov 26, 2025 3 18:17 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Nov 26, 2025 3 18:10 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Nov 26, 2025 3 16:03 Defensive Ryan O'Reilly
Nov 26, 2025 3 13:47 Neutral Ryan O'Reilly
Nov 26, 2025 3 11:22 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Nov 26, 2025 3 03:04 Neutral Ryan O'Reilly
Nov 26, 2025 2 15:03 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Nov 26, 2025 2 06:29 Defensive Ryan O'Reilly
Nov 26, 2025 2 06:23 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Nov 26, 2025 2 06:19 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Nov 26, 2025 1 15:48 Neutral Ryan O'Reilly
Nov 26, 2025 1 06:25 Neutral Dylan Larkin