Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 61.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 63.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 64.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Larkin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Larkin
O'Reilly
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
5
Larkin
O'Reilly
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Larkin
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Larkin
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
55.7% (856)
-4.6%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
57.5% (233)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
50.0% (144)
-1.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Larkin
O'Reilly
Home
51.7% (686)
55.5% (616)
Away
53.0% (658)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Larkin
O'Reilly
P1
52.5%
58.1%
P2
52.7%
54.9%
P3
51.4%
53.9%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 05:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 05:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 18:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 15:48 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |