Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 57 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 74-68 in 142 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 56.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Larkin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
68
-
74
(142 meetings)
68
74
Larkin
O'Reilly
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
24
31
Larkin
O'Reilly
55 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
36
21
Larkin
O'Reilly
57 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
22
Larkin
O'Reilly
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
56.2% (15,290)
-4.6%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
58.7% (3,457)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
51.4% (2,826)
-1.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Larkin
O'Reilly
Home
53.9% (6,277)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Larkin
O'Reilly
P1
52.7%
55.6%
P2
53.1%
57.0%
P3
52.0%
55.0%
OT
58.4%
62.2%
Final 5 min
53.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 05:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 05:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 18:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 15:48 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |