Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.4% vs 52.7%). Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Monahan 52.5% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 50.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Larkin
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Larkin
Monahan
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
Larkin
Monahan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
5
6
Larkin
Monahan
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
3
Larkin
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
53.0% (874)
-1.9%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
54.7% (161)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
47.5% (101)
+0.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Larkin
Monahan
Home
51.7% (686)
53.8% (558)
Away
53.0% (658)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Larkin
Monahan
P1
52.5%
49.5%
P2
52.7%
54.8%
P3
51.4%
52.8%
OT
61.3%
61.9%
Final 5 min
55.7%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:46 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 08:02 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:23 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:38 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:38 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:35 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |