Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (61% H2H, 36 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Monahan 51.2% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 54-48 in 102 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 57.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 53.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Larkin
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
48
-
54
(102 meetings)
48
54
Larkin
Monahan
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
16
13
Larkin
Monahan
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
18
19
Larkin
Monahan
37 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
14
22
Larkin
Monahan
36 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
51.1% (11,407)
+0.5%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
53.6% (2,582)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
45.9% (772)
+4.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Home / Away
Larkin
Monahan
Home
53.9% (6,277)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Larkin
Monahan
P1
52.7%
51.0%
P2
53.1%
51.7%
P3
52.0%
51.0%
OT
58.4%
53.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:46 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 08:02 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:23 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:38 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:38 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:35 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |