Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Aho 50.5% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 64.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 67.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Larkin
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
10
(19 meetings)
9
10
Larkin
Aho
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
7
Larkin
Aho
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Aho
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
50.5% (878)
+0.6%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
53.5% (144)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
44.3% (61)
+3.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Larkin
Aho
Home
51.7% (686)
53.8% (571)
Away
53.0% (658)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Larkin
Aho
P1
52.5%
49.0%
P2
52.7%
51.7%
P3
51.4%
50.3%
OT
61.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
55.7%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 17:59 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 06:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 08:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |