Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarvis on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Jarvis 42.5% (+11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 53.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Larkin
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Larkin
Jarvis
Last 6: Larkin 3-3 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Jarvis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
1
3
Larkin
Jarvis
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
41.8% (354)
+9.8%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
43.7% (119)
+14.9%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
38.2% (157)
+12.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Jarvis is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Larkin
Jarvis
Home
53.9% (6,277)
43.8% (336)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
38.4% (294)
By Period
Larkin
Jarvis
P1
52.7%
39.5%
P2
53.1%
39.5%
P3
52.0%
45.8%
OT
58.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
38.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 02:59 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |