Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Crosby 55.1% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 11-7 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 56.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 75.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 61.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Larkin
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
11
(18 meetings)
7
11
Larkin
Crosby
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
2
5
Larkin
Crosby
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
1
Larkin
Crosby
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
5
Larkin
Crosby
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
53.3% (1,025)
-2.2%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
64.7% (249)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
60.0% (15)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Crosby is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (914).
Home / Away
Larkin
Crosby
Home
51.7% (686)
56.9% (675)
Away
53.0% (658)
54.1% (614)
By Period
Larkin
Crosby
P1
52.5%
55.1%
P2
52.7%
53.1%
P3
51.4%
58.5%
OT
61.3%
54.2%
Final 5 min
55.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:49 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:29 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 17:13 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 19:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 16:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 06:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |