Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 53.5%). Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 64 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Crosby 53.5% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 93-92 in 185 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 61.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 63.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Larkin
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
93
-
92
(185 meetings)
93
92
Larkin
Crosby
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
25
39
Larkin
Crosby
64 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
32
21
Larkin
Crosby
53 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
36
32
Larkin
Crosby
68 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
52.8% (18,031)
-1.2%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
57.4% (4,741)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
47.0% (766)
+3.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Crosby is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (14,886).
Home / Away
Larkin
Crosby
Home
53.9% (6,277)
55.0% (11,998)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
52.0% (11,559)
By Period
Larkin
Crosby
P1
52.7%
53.6%
P2
53.1%
53.8%
P3
52.0%
53.3%
OT
58.4%
49.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:49 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:29 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 17:13 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 19:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 16:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 06:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 14:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 05:25 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |