Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Lorentz 49.5% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 72.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 59.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.9%
59.9%
40.1%
Larkin
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Larkin
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
51.4% (74)
-0.3%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
50.0% (2)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
42.3% (26)
+5.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Lorentz is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (59).
Home / Away
Larkin
Lorentz
Home
51.7% (686)
52.9% (68)
Away
53.0% (658)
41.2% (34)
By Period
Larkin
Lorentz
P1
52.5%
58.6%
P2
52.7%
45.0%
P3
51.4%
45.5%
Final 5 min
55.7%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |