Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Lorentz 48.5% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 68.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 57.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Larkin
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Larkin
Lorentz
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Lorentz
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Lorentz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
48.9% (1,125)
+2.7%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
50.0% (26)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
41.8% (91)
+8.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Lorentz is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Larkin
Lorentz
Home
53.9% (6,277)
50.6% (609)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
46.3% (633)
By Period
Larkin
Lorentz
P1
52.7%
53.0%
P2
53.1%
46.7%
P3
52.0%
46.2%
OT
58.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 06:15 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 07:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 10:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 06:28 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 17:34 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 3 | 02:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |