Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Thompson 45.2% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 83.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 93.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 87.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 88.6%
88.6%
11.4%
Larkin
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Larkin
Thompson
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
1
Larkin
Thompson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
3
Larkin
Thompson
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
44.6% (661)
+6.5%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
48.4% (95)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
33.3% (33)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thompson
Home
51.7% (686)
45.7% (411)
Away
53.0% (658)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Larkin
Thompson
P1
52.5%
47.7%
P2
52.7%
45.7%
P3
51.4%
40.5%
OT
61.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
55.7%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | 3 | 16:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 1 | 16:06 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 15:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 04:07 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 18:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:48 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |