Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (76% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Thompson 42.8% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 51-22 in 73 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 97.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 96.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 94.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 96.0%
96.0%
4.0%
Larkin
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
51
-
22
(73 meetings)
51
22
Larkin
Thompson
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
19
10
Larkin
Thompson
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
16
5
Larkin
Thompson
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
16
7
Larkin
Thompson
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
42.9% (3,540)
+8.7%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
46.9% (373)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
33.6% (265)
+16.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,029).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thompson
Home
53.9% (6,277)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Larkin
Thompson
P1
52.7%
44.4%
P2
53.1%
43.7%
P3
52.0%
40.0%
OT
58.4%
36.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | 3 | 16:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 1 | 16:06 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 15:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 04:07 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 18:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:48 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 13:39 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |